Arnold Palmer Invitational — Draft King Picks
The Valspar proved to be another winning week for GOTM picks, including 10 / 10 in player picks who are going to make the cut (key in 50/50s). The API is the last of 4 in a row in the flat state of Florida, so who knows which players are going to do well? WE do. Or at least claim to.
With the fourth week in a row of picking 50/50 winners, I was flying high. I’m batting 1.000, and in my mind, if you haven’t lost, then you’re the best. Until Mike rolled in and starts claiming that a sample size of 4 isn’t statistically significant to prove that I’m the best golf fantasy picker in the world. I’m choosing to ignore his Debbie Downer attitude and made these picks with the full knowledge that I can’t be beat.
Note that these are initial picks, subject to change. And unlike last week, I’ll make sure to update if I make a substitution.
Overall strategy this week is to pick players who 1) Make a lot of cuts and 2) Are playing well recently. I’m thinking I should try to do a little more in depth analysis for this. Like analytically find players who’s percentage of cuts made recently is better than their overall record for the year or something like that. Maybe further on in the season.
Keegan Bradley ($9,700) — First thing to note is that Keegs is my highest salaried player here. I’m playing in 50/50s, and don’t really want to spend a lot on the overpriced guys. Keegan has history at Bay Hill and is solid overall. I’m expecting him to get lots of play this week.
Charles Howell III ($7,600) — Lots of cuts made.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600) –Lots of cuts made.
Brendan Steele ($7,400) — Lots of cuts made.
Shawn Stefani ($7,200) — I’m imagining Mike reading this with a little smirk on his face. He managed to convince me last week that Stefani is a “must” pick for the foreseeable future. I’ll assume he’s picking him too, so I’ll punt to him for the reasoning.
Sean O’Hair ($8,200) — Not just because of his finish last week, but also because of his much improved play over the entire season so far. But being in a playoff last week helps for sure.
Well, the first week was successful, so I can’t say I really want to mess with the formula a whole lot. Picking players who make the cut is great in theory, but they do actually have to make the cut. As Adam Scott proved at the Valspar no one is safe from a bad week. Therefore, it helps to have a few players finishing near the top, which is why I’m going to stick with picking a few top guys who I think can win and a few guys who I think are undervalued and will make the cut.
*Wednesday evening edit: With the news that Bubba is out (and my increasing unease with Sean O’Hair) I’ve had to rebuild the squad. In my opinion, Bubba and Stenson were the prohibitive favorites, so this really changes things for me. If this were anything other than picks for a 50/50 league, I wouldn’t hesitate to snap up Day, but I think my best bet is to get some solid mid-range guys with the additional saved money. Either way, I’m probably way overthinking it. Dropped players are crossed out at the end.
Henrik Stenson ($12,500) — The guy is good, he’s playing well, and he was t5 here last season during a stretch of not great play. Worth the price tag.
Brooks Koepka ($9,400) — He bombs it and has been playing well all season. His price may be a touch on the high side, but I think the course fits him well.
J.B. Holmes ($8,900) — Pretty much the exact same description as Koepka, but a better price. He’s also got a decent course history, which is just icing.
Hunter Mahan ($7,500) — Not exactly in form, but he hasn’t missed a cut yet, and I think he’s due for a good week.
Robert Streb ($6,400) — Very hot early in the season and has only one missed cut. I think the week off prior to this week helps him get it back on track.
John Peterson ($5,300) — Great value at this price range, cut-making machine this year.
Bubba Watson ($12,300) Sean O’Hair ($8,200) Brendan Steele ($7,400) Andrew Svoboda ($4,800) Andres Gonzales ($4,800)
I’d like to note that I’m not real happy about the O’Hair pick and may be booting him for Hunter Mahan or Shawn Stefani (who is a horse, but has not played this course). That would free up a few bucks to shore up my value picks. I will update if this comes to pass.